The regression of American democracy and the future of hegemony*

Discussed the political challenges faced by the United States in the 2024 election and their impact on global hegemony. The article first points out that there has been a phenomenon of "elderly governance" in American political life, with the age of the president and presidential candidates increasing. This reflects the "class solidification" and accumulation of inequality in American electoral politics, which is one of the signs that it is no longer great. Next, the article analyzes the regression of American democracy, including restrictions on the right to vote and be elected, the lack of peaceful transition of power, and the "emotional polarization" caused by political polarization. The article also mentioned Trump's refusal to acknowledge the election results and his instigation of supporters to attack Congress, which seriously undermines the norms and institutions of American democracy. Finally, the article explores the decline of American hegemony, including its reduced willingness to lead in international affairs, increased public fatigue with hegemony, and the weakening of American legitimacy and authority in the international community. The article argues that the decline of American hegemony does not mean that the United States is about to collapse as a sovereign state, but rather that it will gradually return to a normal country, experiencing cycles of prosperity and decline.

The 2024 US presidential election and China US relations

The 2024 US presidential election will have a profound impact on US domestic and foreign affairs, especially the outcome of the presidential election, which will directly affect US China relations. Trump may return to the White House, making this election a showdown between two different directions in the United States. Over the past eight years, the Trump administration has engaged in strategic competition with China, while the Biden administration has continued and adjusted this policy. During the election process, the issue of China is not the primary key issue, but the two parties are relatively consistent in their strategic positioning and direction towards China. The Biden administration has shown a dual nature of maintaining positive dialogue while negatively manipulating certain issues in China affairs, while Trump and his conservative camp have relatively negative and even extreme views on China affairs. The election results will involve China affairs, which in turn will affect China US relations. The Biden administration continues the strategic competition with China initiated by the Trump administration, and in the National Security Strategy report released in October 2022, positions China as the "only competitor with the intention and sustained growth in economic, diplomatic, military, and technological capabilities to change the international order. The Biden administration has established a strategic "zone" in its competition strategy with China, which means not allowing China to surpass the United States in key areas and not engaging in high-intensity conflicts with China. If Trump returns to the White House, Sino US relations will face even more severe and thorny uncertainties. The 2024 US presidential election will accelerate changes both domestically and internationally, but it will not alter the overall direction and fundamental situation of the US strategic competition with China. The people of China and the United States hope that the common positive will of stable relations between the two countries will not change, nor will the broad interests shared by the two major countries, the multiple challenges they face, and the global responsibilities they shoulder. Over the past fifty years, the interaction and establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States have changed the world. In the next fifty years, it is crucial for China and the United States to find a new and correct way of getting along, and to continue to demonstrate their global responsibilities and contributions, for the common future and destiny of all mankind.

European American relations will enter a difficult period of reshaping

After the end of the Cold War, the cohesion of European American relations declined. During the Trump era, tensions between Europe and America intensified. After Biden took office, he made efforts to repair relations. The Ukraine crisis reactivated NATO, and European American relations improved. However, the 2024 US election may bring new turbulence to European American relations. During the Biden administration, the cooperation between the European and American alliances has been strengthened, but the possible return of Trump has brought uncertainty to the relationship between Europe and the United States. If Trump is re elected, it may intensify the ideological dispute between Europe and America, weaken the United States' security commitment to Europe, and increase economic and trade frictions. Regardless of the election results, the relationship between Europe and the United States will enter a difficult period of reshaping, and European security may gradually form a new stage where Europe bears greater responsibility under the NATO framework, while also needing to adapt to the increasing economic and trade conflicts between the two sides. The rise of radical forces such as populism in Europe will also increase the complexity and uncertainty of reshaping the relationship between Europe and the United States.

The US presidential election and Russia's foreign policy choices

Sun Zhuangzhi pointed out that Russia's attention to the US election stems from the special nature of the Russia US relationship. Russia is facing diplomatic isolation and losing space for external economic cooperation after the special military operation, and hopes that changes in the international landscape will create opportunities for peace talks. After the Crimean crisis in 2014, Russia US relations fell into a low ebb, and bilateral economic and trade relations were maintained. However, after Biden came to power, the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, and the United States imposed comprehensive economic sanctions on Russia, and Russia US relations continued to deteriorate. In the new version of Russia's Foreign Policy Concept, the United States and Europe rank lowest, and Russia sees the United States as the source of anti Russian sentiment, challenging the US led international order. Despite the pause in high-level communication between Russia and the United States, there is still a certain level of tacit understanding. The United States controls the pace of its weapons aid to Ukraine to avoid escalation of the conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized that dialogue between the two sides is only possible if the United States abandons its anti Russian policy. After the US presidential election, it is difficult for Russia US relations to have a substantial turnaround. Whoever wins will maintain US hegemony and will not consider Russia's interests and demands. Russia has put forward a new initiative to build a Eurasian security system, hoping to rebuild the balance between Europe and Asia with the Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia as the core, prevent NATO from expanding eastward, and establish stable and secure relations with Europe. Russia will promote the process of multipolarity, maintain its geopolitical space, strengthen cooperation with Asian powers such as China and India, strive to maintain extensive contacts with the global South, and strive for voice and influence in international organizations. The deterioration of Russia US relations cannot be reversed by changing leaders. The long-standing structural contradictions and social tensions between Russia and the United States are difficult to resolve in the short term. After the US election, the relationship between the two countries will continue to be mainly confrontational.

Japan's perception and response to the 2024 US presidential election

Discussed Japan's perception and response strategies towards the 2024 US presidential election. Japan attaches great importance to the US presidential election because the Japan US alliance has a significant impact on Japan's domestic and foreign affairs. Japan has a harmonious relationship with the Biden administration, but is anxious about the possibility of Trump returning to the White House, fearing that his personal style may pose risks to Japan US relations. Japanese media are paying attention to the US election situation and believe that the possibility of Trump winning the election is increasing. Japan is concerned that Trump's return may bring strategic security risks, fiscal and alliance responsibility sharing issues, as well as hidden risks in the economic and trade fields.

The impact of the 2024 US presidential election on international political and economic relations, as well as the international security environment

Since 1952, the US presidential election has had a profound impact on international political and economic relations, as well as the international security environment. The negative campaigning and "hollowing out" phenomenon in the 2024 US presidential election have led to a decline in US influence in the world, which is conducive to the rise of non Western forces worldwide and changes the international political power structure. The results of the US presidential election will have a significant impact on global economic globalization. Regardless of who is elected, the United States will maintain a protectionist tone, with the only difference being the breadth and depth of protection. The Democratic government will adhere to a multilateral stance and advocate for 'multilateral limited protectionism based on international rules', while the Trump administration will adopt' unilateral unlimited protectionism based on 'America First'. This will lead to the emergence of alternative globalization.