1、 Problem posing

Introduced the origin, member states, purposes, and constitutional provisions of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The Ji'an Organization was established in 1992 with the aim of strengthening peace, maintaining international and regional security and stability, and protecting the independence, territorial integrity, and sovereignty of member states. The Ji'an Organization has received three requests for help from member countries, but refused to intervene in the 2010 Kyrgyzstan riots and the 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and quickly agreed to provide military assistance for the 2022 Kazakhstan riots. The article raises the question: Why did the Ji'an organization choose to intervene in the riots in Kazakhstan but ignore the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan? And outlined the five parts of the paper: problem posing, literature review, analytical framework, comparative analysis, and conclusion outlook.

2、 Review of existing research

Deeply explored the selective intervention behavior of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in the face of security crises in Central Asia and the Caucasus region. The article first points out that the selective intervention of the Ji'an organization belongs to the "alliance dilemma" problem, and member countries face the risk of being implicated and abandoned in the alliance. Next, the article analyzes the factors that affect the reliability of alliances from the perspectives of institutionalism and rationalism. Institutionalism holds that the institutional design and mechanism setting of an alliance have a direct impact on its reliability, while rationalism emphasizes that the state decides whether to fulfill alliance commitments based on cost-benefit considerations.

3、 The analytical framework of this article

The analysis framework is based on two main factors: threat perception and cost expectations, to explore the attitudes of member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in responding to sudden crises. Threat perception is subjective, influenced by decision-makers' perception, cognitive consistency, triggering stereotypes, and historical baggage, and is a decisive intervention variable between international crisis actions and responses. Cost expectations involve cost-benefit analysis of a country's foreign policy decision-making, including both material and non-material costs. The motivation for the actions of the Ji'an organization is not only determined by the will of Russia, but also influenced by the will of other member states, despite Russia's dominant position in the organization.

4、 Ji'an Organization's intervention in the riots in Kazakhstan

In January 2022, riots erupted in Kazakhstan due to the lifting of liquefied petroleum gas price controls, leading to a loss of control over the domestic situation. Kazakhstani President Tokayev requested the intervention of the Collective Security Organization to maintain domestic order. The Ji'an organization responded quickly and dispatched peacekeeping forces, successfully stabilizing the situation in Kazakhstan. There are two main reasons why Ji'an organization chooses to intervene:

5、 Ji'an organization refuses to intervene in the second Nagorno Karabakh conflict

Detailed analysis of the refusal of the Ji'an Organization to intervene in the second Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020. Armenia, as a member state of the Collective Security Organization, has repeatedly requested military assistance during the escalation of the conflict, but the organization has not provided a substantial response. Analysis suggests that the main reasons for the low perception of conflict threats and high cost expectations among member states of the Collective Security Organization are.

6、 Conclusion

By constructing an analytical framework with threat perception and cost expectations as independent variables, this study explores the selective intervention of collective security treaty organizations (CSTOs) in intra domain crises. Research has found that when threat perception is high and cost expectations are low, security organizations tend to intervene; When the threat perception is high and the expected cost is high, there is a tendency towards limited intervention; Tend not to intervene when the threat perception is low and the cost expectation is high; When the threat perception is low and the expected cost is low, nothing will be done. The riots in Kazakhstan and the Nagorno Karabakh conflict belong to these two situations respectively. The selective intervention behavior of the Ji'an organization has a negative impact on the reputation and unity of the organization, such as the estrangement between Armenia and the Ji'an organization, and even raises doubts about withdrawing from the organization. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Kazakhstan and other countries also showed a tendency to keep a distance from Russia and the CSTO. The influence of the Ji'an Organization within its member countries, especially in Central Asia and the Caucasus region, may decline.