After the Cold War, the United States became a superpower and its grand strategy received international attention. In 2020, an article was published in Diplomacy magazine to debate the necessity of grand strategy. One side believes that we should abandon grand strategy and start from pragmatism; The other side emphasizes the importance of grand strategy. Chinese and American scholars have different research focuses. Chinese scholars focus on the content and impact of grand strategies, while American scholars analyze from both theoretical and practical perspectives. This article is based on research in the American academic community, analyzing the rationality and uncertainty logic of national strategy, and exploring the essence of the debate on US grand strategy after the Cold War.

1、 Recent debates on the grand strategy of the United States

The academic research and policy debates on American grand strategy involve different historical periods and multiple aspects. Researchers have formed different views on the existence, significance, and whether the United States needs a grand strategy. The rational choice theory holds that grand strategy is possible, feasible, and meaningful, and the United States should actively pursue a wise grand strategy. The theory of fantasy obsolescence holds that a grand strategy is impossible, unfeasible, and meaningless, and that American grand strategy is just an illusion. The theory of prudence and flexibility advocates that strategic planning is complex and requires a combination of principles and flexibility. The core issue of the US grand strategy debate is the essence and internal logic of grand strategy.

2、 The impact of rationality and uncertainty on national strategy

The different understandings of the concept of grand strategy in the debate on American grand strategy are closely related to the rational and uncertain characteristics of national strategy. National strategy aims to safeguard and enhance national interests, while grand strategy focuses on the military and international levels, emphasizing understanding the global political landscape and power distribution, as well as proposing action plans to deal with potential opponents. American researchers define grand strategy as the resources, means, and methods used to safeguard core interests, identify sources of threats, and respond to external threats.

3、 The Rationality and Uncertainty of US Grand Strategy after the End of the Cold War

After the end of the Cold War, rationality and uncertainty coexisted in the United States' grand strategy. On the one hand, the United States adheres to liberal internationalism, deeply intervenes in global affairs, and maintains its global leadership position and international order. On the other hand, the decision-making process of the US grand strategy is complex and influenced by multiple actors, such as the president, government departments, Congress, interest groups, etc., resulting in the ambiguity, contradictions, and unpredictability of the strategy.

4、 Conclusion

The core of the US grand strategic debate lies in the choice of strategic direction and its timeliness. The complexity of national strategy stems from its pursuit of purposefulness, planning, and balancing certainty, while inevitably facing challenges of uncertainty. This uncertainty is inherent in the process of strategic evaluation, decision-making, and implementation, and although the state can assess and reduce its impact, it cannot be completely avoided. The interaction between rationality and uncertainty has increased the complexity of national strategy and is also the root of the debate on US grand strategy. The success of the US grand strategy lies in its rational power, which has made significant contributions to safeguarding national interests and hegemony, but at the same time, there are uncertainties such as strategic deficiencies, swings, and failures. American decision-makers may make wrong choices in an uncertain environment, leading to unforeseen consequences. Therefore, when formulating a grand strategy, the country should conduct in-depth research on historical laws and successful experiences, while maintaining self reflection, humility, and caution, fully understanding and evaluating the uncertainty of the strategy.