1、 Introduction

Discussed the importance of the industrial sector for economic growth and the phenomenon of "deindustrialization". In developed countries, as the economic level improves, the industrial sector gradually shrinks, while developing countries, especially African countries, have experienced "deindustrialization" at lower levels of development. This phenomenon is known as premature deindustrialization, which can lead to slower economic growth, reduced employment, income inequality, and political instability. Previous studies have identified the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization in some African countries, but the methods used are insufficient. This article proposes an improvement method to identify 13 African countries that have prematurely "deindustrialized", and based on this, analyzes the key cooperative countries for China's manufacturing industry to transfer to Africa, providing reference for China Africa capacity cooperation.

2、 Reasons and impacts of premature deindustrialization in Africa

Explored the reasons and impacts of premature deindustrialization in Africa. The reasons include the contradiction between labor supply and demand, strong resource dependence leading to abnormal industrial development, failure of macroeconomic policy adjustments, and competition from Southeast Asian manufacturing powers. These factors have led to the stagnation of labor-intensive industries, hindering the transfer of labor from the agricultural sector to the manufacturing sector, resulting in resource waste and unemployment issues. Premature deindustrialization also leads to the inability to achieve productivity growth benefits and long-term stagnation of economic growth.

3、 Methods for identifying premature deindustrialization

The identification methods for premature "deindustrialization" were discussed, including two types of indicators to measure the relative share of industry or manufacturing in the economy: the proportion of industrial or manufacturing value added to GDP and the share of industrial or manufacturing employment in total employment. The traditional identification method judges by observing whether the industrial share continues to decline and whether the corresponding per capita income level is lower than the level when developed countries "deindustrialize". Rodrik improved the recognition method by finding the inflection point of the inverted "U" curve through quadratic regression, and comparing the per capita GDP level corresponding to the peak share of the sample with the inflection point level to determine. Kirsh and Felipe analyzed the turning points of "deindustrialization" in developed economies and middle-income countries based on different criteria. In response to the unique characteristics of African countries, this article adjusts the reference sample and adopts a dual standard of industrial value added and industrial employment for identification. It also considers regional heterogeneity to adjust the inflection point position and conducts exclusion tests on the identification results from the perspective of absolute growth to improve the accuracy of identification.

4、 Evidence of premature deindustrialization in Africa

Analyzed the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization in Africa, mainly through the variables of industrial share and per capita GDP. The industrial share variable includes the proportion of industrial added value to GDP and the proportion of industrial employment to total employment, with per capita GDP calculated at constant 2015 US dollar prices. The data is sourced from the World Bank database, covering 54 African countries over a period of 1971-2020. Research has found that the industrial share of African countries shows an inverted "U" trend, which is consistent with economic development theory. The relationship between the peak of industrial added value share and industrial employment share and per capita GDP also conforms to this trend. Most African countries have a per capita GDP below $5000 when their share of industrial value added reaches its peak, indicating the existence of premature deindustrialization. The peak share of industrial added value is mostly between 20% and 40%, similar to developed countries. The peak share of industrial added value is higher in sub Saharan African countries. The peak share of industrial added value shows a downward trend over time. The peak of industrial employment share corresponds to a lower per capita GDP, with most countries concentrated below $2500. The peak industrial employment share appeared in the early 1990s and 2019, which may be related to the market-oriented reform and the COVID-19. The peak of industrial employment share in sub Saharan African countries appeared relatively late and high. Over time, the peak decline in industrial employment share has been even greater.

5、 Empirical analysis of premature deindustrialization in Africa

By constructing a panel model to identify the turning point of "deindustrialization" in Africa, it was found that there is an inverted "U" - shaped relationship between the industrial share and per capita GDP of African countries. Calculate the per capita GDP level corresponding to the inflection point of industrial added value share and industrial employment share through regression analysis. Based on this standard, 44 countries with premature deindustrialization of industrial value-added share and 26 countries with premature deindustrialization of industrial employment share were identified. Further consider regional heterogeneity, revise the identification criteria for sub Saharan African countries, and exclude some countries. Meanwhile, exclude countries with good industrial development trends in the past 20 years. Finally, 13 African countries that were prematurely deindustrialized were identified. In addition, it was found that the peak industrial share of African countries has shown a downward trend over time, indicating that the contribution of industrial development to economic growth in African countries is limited.

6、 Conclusion and Implications

By analyzing the industrial share and per capita GDP of African countries, the method of identifying premature "deindustrialization" countries in Africa was improved, ultimately identifying 13 countries including Benin. Research has found that over time, the peak of industrial development in African countries gradually shifts downwards. The later a country starts industrialization, the later the peak of industrial development appears and the lower the peak. Early deindustrialization in African countries is characterized by a relative decline in industry or manufacturing, which hinders economic growth. China has a high supply-demand matching in the manufacturing industry with these countries, and has good prospects for capacity cooperation. Through international production capacity cooperation, China has transferred its advantageous production capacity to premature "deindustrialization" countries in Africa, optimized industrial structure, developed industry and manufacturing in African countries, filled the gap in industrial structure, and achieved economic growth. The transfer of manufacturing industry will drive local employment and output, increase residents' income and government tax revenue, and lay the foundation for re industrialization. The transfer of manufacturing industry will also drive the coordinated development of agriculture, logistics, infrastructure and other fields, alleviating factors that hinder industrial development. China Africa capacity cooperation expands the international market for both sides' products, increases total output, and lays the foundation for the extension and transformation of the industrial chain. China Africa capacity cooperation can help alleviate the trend of premature deindustrialization in Africa, drive employment and economic growth. In the context of global economic recovery, China should deepen production capacity cooperation between China and Africa, adjust the layout of industrial transfer, digest and export advantageous manufacturing production capacity, and achieve win-win results.