The two political elections in France in 2024 have pushed for a reshaping of the political landscape, forming an unprecedented "three-way divide" structure. This change is related to the profound changes in the French economy, society, and politics, reflecting the dysfunction of the internal 'contractual order'. Before the formation of a new 'contractual order', France will face challenges of uncertainty and instability, which will affect the development of the country and society.

1、 Two elections become catalysts for political restructuring in France

The 2024 European Parliament and National Assembly elections have become catalysts for the restructuring of the political landscape in France, with the National Union (RN) receiving the most support from voters and triggering an unprecedented tense political atmosphere. In the European Parliament elections, the National Union received 31.37% of the vote, far exceeding other political parties and winning 30 seats, which constrained Macron's EU reform plan. Macron immediately dissolved the National Assembly and announced that new National Assembly elections would be held in 20 days, attempting to block the upward momentum of the National Alliance. After the National Assembly elections, the French political situation formed a pattern of "three factions": the National Alliance, the New People's Front, and the Renaissance Party. The New People's Front became the majority, while the Renaissance Party's seats were significantly reduced. Although the National Alliance did not become an absolute majority, it ranked third in the number of seats and became an important pole in the political situation. The significant gap between the election results and the true will of French voters has raised doubts about the democratic system. The reorganization of party groups within the National Assembly has resulted in 8 out of 11 groups being positioned as opposition and holding 404 seats, weakening Macron's voice on domestic issues. In the elections for key positions in the National Assembly, the National Alliance achieved nothing, and internal political transactions within the National Assembly weakened the political layout of the National Alliance. The political party ecosystem in France is fragmented, and people's confidence in party politics is decreasing. 82% of respondents hold negative views of various political parties, and 88% believe that they are untrustworthy.

2、 The Triple Crisis Behind the Evolution of French Political Ecology

The reshaping of the political landscape in France is a dynamic process, characterized by the rise of the centrist faction led by Macron and the decline of the traditional left and right parties. This change is the result of significant economic and social changes in France, mainly reflected in three crises: economic development difficulties, complex social situations and intensified identity crises, and the decline of traditional party politics.

3、 The potential impact of the restructuring of the French political situation

The restructuring of the French political situation has led to a situation of "three-way separatism", which has had a profound impact on the development of the country and society. Firstly, France will face enormous resistance in deepening economic and social reforms, with political polarization and restructuring exacerbating reform difficulties. In the future, there may be policy setbacks, especially in areas such as retirement systems and unemployment insurance. Secondly, the political situation of the 'three factions' will further catalyze the internal division of French society, intensifying public opinion confrontation and division, and French society may experience a period of instability. Finally, the existing political situation may catalyze a profound transformation of the French political system, with public opinion focusing on issues such as reforming the electoral mechanism of the National Assembly, forming a "coalition culture", and reshaping the political system guided by the Sixth Republic of France. The restructuring of the political landscape in France has become a catalyst for deeper political reforms.

conclusion

French society is severely divided, and political stability is facing challenges. There are significant differences in values and positions among political parties on key issues. Reshaping the 'social contract' is an inevitable path to consensus building and unity, which helps to find a basis for cooperation among different parties and explore the possibilities of national and social development. Without the reshaping of the 'social contract', social division in France will intensify and may even lead to a 'civil war'. Reshaping the 'social contract' will help France adapt to the political foundation of the new era.