After gaining independence, Belarus actively developed its relationship with Russia. After Lukashenko came to power in 1994, the relationship between the two countries significantly improved, and in 1999, an alliance state was established. Despite conflicting interests, Belarus attempted to seek a balance between Russia, Europe, and America, but its strategy of seeking support from Europe and America at the expense of Russia's interests failed. Russia should avoid great power chauvinism among sister countries. Thirty years of experience and lessons have made the Russia Belarus relationship more mature, and the future Russia Belarus alliance will be closer and stronger.

1、 Russia Belarus relations during the first half of Lukashenko's presidency

In the early days of Belarus' independence, its foreign policy advocated neutrality and non alignment, and sought integration with the European Union, establishing extensive international contacts and actively joining international organizations. However, due to insufficient Western aid and worsening economic crisis, Belarus gradually realized the importance of cooperation with Russia. In 1994, after Lukashenko was elected president, Belarus began actively forming an alliance with Russia and supporting the integration of the Commonwealth of Independent States, leading to a rapid warming of relations between the two countries. In the military and security fields, Belarus and Russia have strengthened cooperation to jointly resist NATO's eastward expansion. Economically, Belarus is highly dependent on Russia and the two countries have close economic cooperation. In terms of foreign policy, Belarus and Russia maintain consistency and jointly oppose Western hegemony and "color revolutions". Belarus and Russia have a deep historical connection, with close ties in religion, culture, language, and other aspects. The national security and economic security of Belarus depend on close cooperation with Russia. During Lukashenko's presidency, the rapid recovery of economic growth in Belarus proved that the policy of forming an alliance with Russia was in line with the fundamental interests of both countries.

2、 Lukashenko made two adjustments to his foreign policy (2006-2020)

Between 2006 and 2020, Belarusian President Lukashenko adjusted his foreign policy twice to address conflicts and differences with Russia. In 2006, Lukashenko rejected Putin's proposal to establish a unified federal state or alliance state, insisting on safeguarding national sovereignty. Russia's increase in natural gas prices and reduction in oil supply have led to strained relations between the two countries. Lukashenko seeks to improve relations with the European Union and the United States by participating in the EU's "Eastern Partnership" program to expand trade and attract investment. However, after the 2010 Belarusian presidential election, the European Union and the United States imposed sanctions on Belarus, forcing Lukashenko to rely on Russia again. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014, Belarus did not publicly support Russia, but proposed to hold trilateral negotiations and ultimately reached a ceasefire agreement. The EU has therefore lifted some sanctions against Belarus, but the conflict between Belarus and Russia over military bases and energy issues has intensified. In 2019, Russia cancelled its duty-free oil exports to Belarus, causing significant losses to the country. In 2020, US Secretary of State Pompeo visited Minsk and the two sides decided to resume exchanging ambassadors. The United States expressed its willingness to provide energy support. However, the relationship between Belarus and the West is essentially unequal and antagonistic, with Western countries attempting to incite "color revolutions" by supporting opposition and non-governmental organizations. Lukashenko's attempt to balance between Russia and Europe ultimately failed, and Belarus had to choose Russia between the East and the West.

3、 Accelerating the construction of alliance countries and looking ahead to Russia Belarus relations

Discussed the acceleration of the construction of the alliance between Russia and Belarus and its prospects for future relations. Russia has clearly expressed its support for the Lukashenko regime after the Belarusian elections and hopes to deepen cooperation between the two countries. Faced with the threat of NATO, Russia and Belarus have strengthened military cooperation, including joint military exercises and extending the use of military bases. Economically, Russia has provided loans to Belarus to help it overcome economic difficulties, while the trade volume between the two countries has increased. Russia's investment in the construction of nuclear power plants has promoted the development of Belarus' power industry. In 2021, the Russia Belarus alliance made progress in military, economic and other fields, signed multiple cooperation agreements, and promoted the integration process between the two countries.