The Central and Eastern European (CEE) region holds significant strategic importance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, influenced by both Russian and European powers. After the Cold War, CEE countries transitioned from a buffer zone to a "new intermediary zone" between the West and Russia. Amid political transformations and foreign policy adjustments, many chose to join the EU and NATO for security and economic development while maintaining ties with Russia, forming a "dual-track" connectivity pattern. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, CEE countries have displayed varying stances and strategic decisions, impacting the conflict's trajectory and potential outcomes.

1. Literature Review and Problem Statement

Following the Soviet Union's collapse, CEE countries became a focal point of contention due to their strategic position, with their security choices influencing Western and Russian foreign policies. Academic analyses of CEE foreign stances have examined economic and energy factors, historical perspectives, and external military crises but lack comprehensive systematic study. The CEE region occupies a central role in European geopolitics, with its geography, resources, and strategic value critical to European security and energy supply. CEE-Russia geopolitical relations are complex, shaped by history, politics, and religion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the CEE region's strategic significance, forcing it to reassess ties with Russia. This paper constructs a three-tier framework of CEE-Russia geopolitical proximity to explore how geography shapes CEE stances on the conflict and analyzes future regional dynamics.

2. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and New Geopolitical Shifts in the CEE Region

NATO and EU expansion have intensified tensions with Russia, triggering geopolitical conflicts that threaten CEE stability and the global order. Five waves of NATO enlargement squeezed Russia's security space, culminating in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a turning point in NATO-Russia relations. The conflict has turned CEE into a "sub-buffer zone" between Russia and Europe, reshaping geopolitics and exacerbating security contradictions. The U.S. has sought to rally Europe against Russia, with NATO viewing Russia as a threat and CEE becoming the core of NATO's eastward expansion, further compressing Russia's strategic space. The conflict has polarized CEE countries, with most condemning Russia while a few, like Serbia, support it. CEE nations face territorial security dilemmas, fearing spillover effects. The conflict has heightened internal security concerns, bringing non-traditional risks like food shortages, energy supply disruptions, and refugee crises. CEE countries are adopting more cautious foreign policies in the Russia-Europe rivalry, seeking a "third way" to navigate the crisis.

3. Divergent CEE Positions on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Influencing Factors

During the Cold War, CEE served as a buffer between the USSR and Western Europe, enduring Soviet repression and "two decades of stagnation," fostering a historical "fear of Russia." Globalization and EU expansion transformed CEE economies, politics, and security outlooks, yet responses to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have varied. These divergences reflect historical, cultural, and foreign policy differences, impacting global security.

CEE positions on the conflict diverge notably in perceptions of Russia as a security threat. The Baltic states and Poland firmly view Russia as a threat, Serbia opposes this stance, while others remain neutral. CEE countries can be categorized as staunchly anti-Russian, Russia-friendly, or neutral. Their geographic sensitivity in Russia-Europe security dynamics correlates with proximity to Russia and historical ties.

Key factors influencing CEE stances include: 1) Inner-tier countries bordering Russia (e.g., Baltics, Poland), historically under Soviet influence, see Russia as the primary threat, increasing aid to Ukraine, strengthening Western ties, and supporting sanctions; 2) Russia-friendly Hungary and Serbia, in the middle tier, maintain distance but cooperate with Russia on energy and economy, alleviating Russia's isolation; 3) Neutral CEE countries, also in the middle tier, have ambivalent Russia ties, with domestic political shifts affecting policy adjustments; 4) Outer-tier countries, distant from Russia but energy-dependent, approach relations cautiously and pragmatically.

CEE geopolitical sensitivity shapes conflict stances. Inner-tier countries more readily perceive Russia as a threat, while middle-tier nations waver. Neutral CEE states balance cooperation with Russia against fears of Western backlash. External influences and internal political, economic, and cultural differences create complex, varied CEE attitudes toward Russia.

4. Impact of CEE Position Divergence on Regional Cooperation

As a "new intermediary zone" between Russia and Europe, CEE's fragmented stances in the conflict affect regional cooperation. Poland and others have bolstered intra-CEE collaboration, but differing positions create rifts in joint mechanisms. The conflict has strained traditional alliances, such as Czechia's dissatisfaction with Slovakia. CEE stances toward Russia remain entrenched, preserving Russian regional influence. The CEE region will focus more on U.S. economic impact while broadly supporting Ukraine. Future elections, like Romania's pro-EU vs. pro-Russia contest, will shape foreign policy. The U.S. will collaborate with CEE to bolster European influence, with a potential Trump presidency introducing new dynamics. Europe remains committed to Ukraine but faces limited capacity. CEE's trajectory will hinge on U.S. influence, Russia-Europe relations, and regional policy directions.

5. Conclusion

Post-Cold War, CEE emerged as Europe-Russia's "new intermediary zone," with the conflict elevating its security role and exposing divisions. Countries closer to Russia lean anti-Russian, while distant ones waver or align with Moscow. CEE could mediate the conflict, but internal complexity limits its role. U.S.-dependent CEE states risk reduced military aid. Post-conflict, CEE must pursue stability and prosperity by deepening EU and NATO integration, enhancing autonomy, and expanding global influence.